Talks on Iran: the US won or lost to Iran? – RIA News

Vladimir Yevseyev, director of the Center for Public Policy Research, Head of the Caucasus Department of the CIS Institute for MIA “Russia today”

On Tuesday, July 14, 2015 in Vienna, the first time since the emergence in 2003 of the Iranian nuclear crisis of the international community in the face of “Six” (the five permanent UN Security Council members and Germany) failed to agree on a mechanism intermediaries removal from the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) unilateral and international sanctions.

Of course, we are not talking about withdrawing from IRI of all sanctions that include 4 sanctions UN Security Council resolutions, 18 decrees of the President of the USA, the EU and 4 of 10 laws passed by the US Congress.

So, half of US sanctions that have begun to enter against Tehran in 1979 because of, for example, support for international terrorism or human rights abuses, nothing to do with Iran’s nuclear program, so they are not going to shoot.

However, in comparison with the “Joint Action Plan” of 24 November 2013 significant progress was made, which allowed even to declare the historic success of the negotiations in Vienna. Let’s try to assess whether this is true.

The sanctions are canceled, but not all and not just

First, adopted after the talks, “joint comprehensive action plan” assumes that the full withdrawal from Iran sanctions will only ten years after the adoption of a (as will be shown below – the sanctions) resolution, the UN Security Council. During this time, a lot can happen, especially given the lack of legal guarantees from the countries participating in the talks (this document is not intended to ratify either the US Congress or parliament IRI).

According to the current legislation the US administration must submit the agreement to Congress on the Iranian nuclear issue within five days from the date of its signing. Currently, members of Congress are on vacation, so they get a “joint comprehensive plan of action” in August, and will have another 30 days to make adjustments to it.

This gives the Republicans, who have a majority in both houses of Congress, the time required to substantially prevent the implementation of this agreement.

By this time the United States will begin the active phase of the presidential election campaign. Moreover, all the presidential candidates believe the White House’s current position on the Iranian nuclear issue too soft, so the agreement under consideration is called a “bad deal”.

In particular, the most likely Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton declared Iran a historical adversary of the US . Therefore it is difficult to hope that she will continue the policies of President Barack Obama’s suspension of anti-Iranian sanctions (against laws enacted by Congress, this is possible only by six months).

Second, immediately after the end of the current negotiations in The UN Security Council will be sent a draft resolution, which says that in Iran for five years retained the embargo on heavy weapons designs, and for eight years, will operate a ban on exports to the country of ballistic missiles and missile technologies. Consequently, the international sanctions against Tehran will continue to operate, which may, for example, to prevent them getting full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Will not be easy, and the process of suspension and removal from the more Iran unilateral sanctions of the EU, the US and its allies.

It was only 90 days after the adoption of another sanctions resolution the UN Security Council agreement Iran and “Six” will enter into force.

Who will control Iran

Third, keep tight control over Iran’s nuclear activities to the UN Security Council and the IAEA. In particular, representatives of Iran and the “six” of international mediators will meet to monitor the implementation of “comprehensive Joint Action Plan” not less than once every two years. Iran “will increase the quota of the IAEA inspectors to 130-150 people. For 9 months from the start of implementation of the agreement under consideration.” At the same time, “Iran would allow IAEA inspectors to stay nationalities of those countries with which Iran established diplomatic relations in accordance with the laws of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” From this we can conclude that the American inspectors are unlikely to get into this country in the near future.

The EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Federica Mogherini or her representative will coordinate the work of the joint commission for implementation of the agreement with Iran and to resolve disputes over Iran’s nuclear program. Meetings of the Joint Commission will be held quarterly in New York, Vienna or Geneva, but it is unclear whether the decisions taken by consensus or simple majority.

The latter is crucial because the West actually has in it a majority. So he can 65 days to renew the international sanctions against Iran because, as it seems, Tehran failure of the agreement (in which case it shall terminate and the Iranian side).

In addition, IAEA has no financial and human resources to carry out “a comprehensive Joint Action Plan” in full, and the joint committee on the implementation of the agreement will not be able to consider all claims against Iran.

To what specifically agreed

The meeting failed to reach agreement following:

– reducing the number of working gas centrifuges until 6104;

– a ban on the construction of new uranium enrichment facilities (for 15 years);

– a decrease in stocks of low enriched uranium (LEU) in the form of uranium hexafluoride to 300 kg with the degree of enrichment to 3.7% uranium-235 for a period of 15 years;

All enriched to 3.7% hexafluoride More than 300 kg of uranium will be “diluted” to the natural level or sold on the international market and taken to a foreign buyer in exchange for the supply of natural uranium in Iran. But at the same time to continue the process of enriching uranium with its subsequent conversion into a solid (oxide) form.

– placement in an underground uranium enrichment plant at Fordow 1,044 gas centrifuges that will not be used for purposes of uranium enrichment (the period of administration limit – 15 years);

– a reduction in the main uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, the number of working centrifuges P-1 to 5060 for a period of 8 years;

– the rejection of the use of advanced centrifuges ( Only low-power R-1) for a period of 8 years;

– the dismantling of the core and changing the design of heavy water reactor under construction in Arak (in particular, limiting its capacity up to 20 MW);

The purpose of this is to prevent the operating time there weapons-grade plutonium. In addition, the assumed removal from the reactor spent nuclear fuel (SNF) for the exclusion of the possibility of separating from it weapons-grade plutonium (besrochno).

– a ban on the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel to Iran (for 15 years);

– refusal to Tehran from building heavy-water reactors in the country over the next 15 years, and export of all unused stocks of heavy water for the same time period;

– the introduction of a 15-year term limit on the degree of enrichment of uranium (up to 3.7% uranium-235);

– the introduction of a 15-year monitoring by the IAEA over Iranian uranium mines and enterprises for the production of uranium concentrate;

– dismantling and removal of all non-performing centrifuges, including all the advanced IR-2 centrifuges, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6 and IR-8, in place of the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the purpose of storage under the control of the IAEA (time limit – 10 years) ;

– the voluntary implementation of the requirements of the Additional Protocol by Iran (1997) and changes in the code 3.1. the Agreement with the IAEA on safeguards (for a period of 8 years, including a one-time access of the IAEA to the military base at Parchin, where possible were tested neutron detonator – initiator for a nuclear explosion).

It is believed that it will increase by 1 , the time required for production of 25 kg of weapons-grade uranium, enough for one nuclear weapon.

This conclusion is controversial, since it does not account for significant reserves of LEU in a solid form, which, through the conversion can be converted to the form of uranium hexafluoride suitable for further enrichment, up to weapons grade.

Thus, it is premature to talk about the historical success of the negotiations in Vienna. Of course, there has been considerable success in resolving the Iranian nuclear crisis. But this process is far from over, and its positive outcome for the international community is not obvious.