Wednesday, January 20, 2016

Record after record: that financiers say about the prospects of the ruble – Russia Oil

«Oil of Russia», 20.01.16, Moscow, 18:11 The exchange rate of the dollar on Wednesday exceeded the historical maximum and reached 80.8 rubles. What are the future prospects for the Russian currency and whether to buy dollars at this level?

The exchange rate of the dollar on Wednesday exceeded 80 rubles. Soon he was beaten, and the historical record: the dollar exceeded 80.1 rubles. and reached the highest level since the denomination in 1998. The previous record was set on 16 December 2014 during the trading session, but closed the day trading at significantly lower – 67.5 rubles. per dollar.

The depreciation of the ruble on Wednesday against a background of falling world oil prices. During today’s trading on the stock exchange ICE futures price for Brent crude oil for delivery in March 2016 fell to $ 27,79.

What will happen to the dollar further and whether to buy the currency is now?

Vladimir Pantyushin, Senior strategist at Sberbank CIB:

«While everyone says that oil prices will continue to fall in price, respectively, and the ruble will become cheaper with it . However, at the level of 80 rubles., Is likely to increase the interest of exporters to sell foreign currency. Due to this the fall of oil below $ 28 / bbl. the dollar will not go much higher than 80 rubles.

This year, the dollar will be cheaper, as the oil will go up, but it is not clear how much of this coming: three, six, nine months. If the population of foreign currency costs are expected in the near future, it is better to buy dollars right now. If these costs are not expected to, I would have no action is taken. And the reserves for currency translation in humans almost no ».

Dmitry Polevoy, chief economist at ING in Russia and CIS:

« Any predictions on the dynamics of the ruble today – is largely forecasts for the oil price. Our baseline scenario assumes oil recovery in the coming months, so it is expected and the strengthening of the ruble. If we seriously consider the conservation scenario of oil prices at current levels or further reduce, then the ruble remains the potential to weaken to levels 82-85 per dollar. Recommendations to the public, however, are standard. If you want to play speculation the ruble, you can try, but the risk of losing not less than the risk to earn something, especially if the current levels of the course. If a large demand for the currency is not present, then the recommendation is either to remain in the deposit, using still acceptable rates on ruble deposits, or to make a basket of currencies of the ruble, dollar and euro, and then not to react to short-term fluctuations in the market, so as not to lose out on the volatility. ”

Alex Egorov, senior analyst at Promsvyazbank:

«If the price of oil below $ 28 / bbl. have unfavorable prospects for the ruble, because at the current dollar quotes fundamentally have to cost a bit more expensive. Mark 82-84 rubles. the dollar looks quite realistic. Now it makes sense to buy the dollar, if you can do it on an individual rate closer to the stock exchange. The fact that now in the exchanger will put quotation 85-88 rubles. And when when the exchange rate of the mark 84 rubles. you decide to sell, you can do it will only be for about 78 rubles. To purchase necessary to wait for the oil return to the level above $ 30 / bbl. If you already have savings in foreign currency, it is better to leave them ».

Vyugin, chairman of MDM Bank:

« Nothing special with rate does not occur. Falling oil prices – falling ruble. If there was no inflation, and the price of food, clothing, and services are not growing, the majority of Russian citizens, this problem should not have to touch. Unfortunately, the fall of the ruble today is a certain rise in prices. If a person firmly believes that oil prices will fall, prices will rise and the ruble, respectively, will fall, maybe it makes sense to protect their savings to purchase foreign currency. But in the current situation there is a risk to make a mistake. Therefore, everyone must decide for himself ».

Oleg Shibanov, a finance professor at the New Economic School:

« Now the reality is that the dollar is in the he can and 100 rubles. to break though the fall in oil prices that is happening. For a man who lives in Russia, the most important is not how to adapt to the course, and what will happen with inflation, how much will it cost the food basket. Inflation depends on the dollar, but in recent years this relationship has been rather weak. There is a chance that nothing terrible will happen at the rate of 80 rubles., And 100 rubles. per dollar.

For the savings is quite a slog. Apartment prices in dollars, for example, has fallen dramatically. Now all that you will receive in the form of proceeds should be allocated between the currencies. But there is no sense now to shift all the rubles into dollars there. Do not try to guess when the rate will be at its peak, and when – on the bottom. Rather, you need to save each month one-third in rubles, and a third delayed in dollars and euros.

Is a repeat of the situation of the 1990s? Then dollarization was the mass, the ruble was not considered any currency saving or sharing. Return to this unlikely, but it could actually happen if the dollar will continue to grow rapidly. Expensive purchases may again evaluate the dollar. ”

Michael Kachurin Olga Sitnikov


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