The gift to the leader
The announcer Central Television North Korea announced that North Korea has successfully tested a hydrogen bomb in the north-east of the country, reports Reuters. “We will behave as a responsible nuclear power, we will not use such weapons first and use it only to protect our sovereignty, – she said. – We will not abandon our nuclear development program as long as the US is carried out in an aggressive policy towards the DPRK. ” Republic also will not transfer its nuclear technology “third parties,” added the speaker. The order of the tests was given by the DPRK leader Kim Jong Ynom.
According to the North Korean television, the country experienced a miniature hydrogen nuclear device, significantly advancing in its shock potential. The power of the explosion was six kilotons, which is about the power of the device, exploded by North Korea in the framework of the previous nuclear tests in 2013, local media reported member of the Intelligence Committee of the South Korean parliament – the National Assembly, that is thousands of times less than the power of ordinary hydrogen bombs, measured in megatons.
Earlier, about 4 am, Moscow time, seismologists have recorded several countries technogenic earthquake that could be triggered by the nuclear tests. According to the US Geological Survey, the magnitude of the quake in North Korea amounted to 5.1 points, the epicenter was located at a depth of 10 km. According to the Meteorological Service of South Korea, the epicenter of the earthquake was located artificially induced at the surface of 49 km from the nuclear test site Phungeri (Yangkang Province), where Pyongyang has previously conducted similar tests. Chinese service monitoring earthquakes appreciated its magnitude at 4.9 points.
On Friday, January 8, Kim Jong-un will be celebrating a birthday, so the explosion may well have been a “gift” does not exclude the WSJ: North Korea has always celebrated with pomp such events during the Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il. It is also possible that the tests are confined to the Seventh Congress of the Workers’ Party of Korea, the ruling party, the DPRK, which will be held May: The last Congress was held in 1980, that is for Kim Jong-un will be the first party congress.
«Kim Chen Ynu must show Congress the great achievements, – said employee of the tests WSJ Japanese Waseda University Toshimitsu Sigemura. – His father felt no hydrogen bombs, and now he can say that he did it himself. It is for him a very significant achievement ».
Power small
The fact that the country has thermonuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has announced 10 December 2015 while visiting a of weapons factories in Pyongyang. Prior to that, the DPRK conducted three nuclear tests – in 2006, 2009 and 2013, for which the country against the UN sanctions were imposed. Today’s test of a nuclear bomb was the second time that the country is headed by Kim Jong-un.
But neither then nor now confirm the presence of North Korean technology to build nuclear weapons hydrogen is not possible. South Korean intelligence, and experts doubt that Pyongyang has to do adequate research resources.
«We have no evidence that North Korea has created a hydrogen bomb – told in December, the South Korean news agency Yonhap officer of the National Intelligence Agency South Korea . – We believe that the DPRK is no technology to create hydrogen bombs, as Pyongyang has not succeeded in the development of miniature nuclear bombs ».
« It is difficult to imagine that North Korea has a hydrogen bomb, – explained the agency researcher Seoul Institute of Policy Science and Technology Li Chun gene. – But it can develop it ».
It is also possible that the DPRK made a nuclear explosion to thermonuclear gain at which the compression of tritium release of fusion energy. This is more consistent with the technological level of the country, explained CNN’s December, a military analyst at the Strategic Research Center of the American RAND Corporation Bruce Bennett. According to him, the power of such an explosion of about 50 kilotons.
A similar opinion is shared by the director of the East Asia Program at the Monterey Institute of International Studies (USA) Geoffrey Lewis: perhaps it was a blast from the gain is clearly not a complete bomb, North Korea always exaggerated his military achievements.
«Given the power of the explosion, it is difficult to imagine that it was a hydrogen bomb – Reuters quoted researcher Korean Forum on Defense and Security, Ian Yuka. – Most likely, they experienced something between a nuclear and hydrogen bomb, but as long as they do not present obvious evidence of their claims hard to believe ».
A similar opinion was expressed by President of the Ploughshares Fund, an international organization dedicated to security issues Joe Tsirintsione: it is not the real hydrogen bomb, as the power of the latter is calculated megatons.
It is noteworthy that neither in the Far East in Russia, nor in the neighboring countries there have been no increase of the background radiation, which should occur in nuclear explosions .
Possible effects
Of course, the creation of the hydrogen bomb, if this information is correct – a great technological achievement for the country, but in military terms, this change only quantitative, but qualitative, writes columnist Vox, adding that it is a clear provocation by Pyongyang.
First, it could be sent out to gain concessions from the US and South Korea, which is isolated Republic of vital assistance in exchange for giving up military developments. North Korea often escalate the situation, only to have more room for maneuver in the negotiations, he said. Second, North Korea’s political culture demands that the country’s leader periodic “sign of strength”, ie, the test could be due to a purely domestic political reasons. Third, the test could be a kind of warning to the United States or South Korea, which Pyongyang sees as potential aggressors.
According to Professor Indian Jawaharlal Nehru University Happimona Jacob, the test can significantly alter the balance of forces on the Korean peninsula and beyond. This increases the vulnerability of Japan and South Korea in the conditions when China, on the contrary, increases its power and calls into question the ability of the US to guarantee the security of its allies in the region.
With the failure of the six-party talks with Pyongyang possible US and China Deter North Korea has greatly decreased. Thus, the only country that has preserved the ability to influence Pyongyang, is Russia. But it is at odds with her West for a number of geopolitical issues, says the expert.
North Korean actions pose a serious threat to the nuclear nonproliferation regime. In addition, they can make South Korea and Japan to follow the example of Pyongyang and begin to develop their own nuclear weapons, concludes Jacob.
«resolutely opposed»
The representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Russia Maria Zakharova said that Russia is carefully studying the statements of the authorities of North Korea and analyzes the data inspector. Tests violate international law and the existing UN Security Council resolutions, and could exacerbate the situation on the Korean Peninsula, “which already has a very high potential military-political confrontation,” she added.
The head of the Federation Council international affairs Konstantin Kosachev wrote on his page on Facebook, that nuclear tests violate the spirit of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and threaten Russia’s national security.
In Washington doubted the reality of the allegations of North Korea for testing the hydrogen bomb . “Although so far we can not confirm these allegations, we condemn any violation of UN Security Council resolutions and again urge North Korea to abide by its international obligations,” – said the official representative of the National Security Council Ned Price.
«Tests undermine the security of Northeast Asia and is a violation of the DPRK’s commitment to non-proliferation, “- said the NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.
The tests are a” violation of universally recognized norms on the prohibition of nuclear tests, “as well as” a threat to peace and international security, “said the executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBTO) Lassina Zerbo.
Japan North Korea expressed its official protest against the trials. South Korea “strongly condemns North Korea for the fourth nuclear test, which is a flagrant violation of UN Security Council resolutions,” said the deputy head of the National Security Administration of the President of South Korea’s Cho Dae-yong.
China has made “strongly opposed” held tests. “We urge Pyongyang to honor the commitments on denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, and to refrain from any action that might aggravate the situation,” – said Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying.
Actions Pyongyang condemned as Britain and France.
On Wednesday evening, December 6, scheduled an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council on the issue of North Korea’s test.
The reaction of markets
World stocks were down on Wednesday, the fifth day in a row amid concerns about the state of the Chinese economy, as well as reports about North Korea’s nuclear tests . European stock indices went into the red zone after the Asian markets.
The South Korean KOSPI down 0.3%, and the won reached a three-month low – the national currency of the republic has fallen against the US dollar at the end of trading session on Wednesday by 0.8% to 1,197. Japan’s Nikkei lost 1% by the end of trading.
The British FTSE, Germany’s DAX and the French CAC fell by about 1, 5% at the end of trading, heralding the decline on Wall Street.
Futures on US indexes are retreating before the opening of stock exchanges in the United States. Futures on the Dow Jones losing 1.6% on the S & amp; P 500 – 1.8% and the Nasdaq-100 – 1.9%. Observers note that the statement by Pyongyang exacerbated concerns about the geopolitical situation in the world, which has worsened the crisis in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
Two-year South Korean bonds rose, lowering the yield on two basis points up to 2.04%. The South Korean government will develop measures to stabilize the market, if the need arises, said Zheng Chang Wu, deputy chairman of the Financial Services Commission of the country, reports Bloomberg.
Central Bank Korea believes that North Korea will test a “limited negative impact” on the financial situation in the country. The main risks for it are slowing growth in China and emerging markets, said Park Jung Se in charge regulator for issues related to currency.
Pyongyang’s actions create volatility in the won, which is compounded the fall of the yuan to the US dollar, the analyst Hong Kong Standard Chartered Bank division Eddie Chan. The geopolitical news, tend to have short-term impact on the market, he added.
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